QT is incrementally improving the transmission of monetary policy by increasing the share of financial assets sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate. Although the policy rate is approaching 5%, trillions of bank deposits continue to offer around 0%. QT strengthens the transmission of policy by mechanically replacing bank deposits with policy rate sensitive Treasuries, and by forcing banks to compete more aggressively for deposit funding. Both outcomes raise the interest rate on assets held by …
Tag: quantitative tightening
Published on January 23, 2023 by Joseph Wang Free
Governor Waller suggests two significant changes to the Fed’s QT framework that effectively removes all obstacles to an extended QT. First, Waller suggests that the $2t in RRP balances should be consolidated with bank reserves when thinking of bank liquidity levels. This indicates that the Fed would be comfortable with bank reserve levels dropping below the roughly estimated $2.5t minimum level. Second, Waller appears to be open to maintaining QT even if policy rates are …
Published on December 19, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
A change in the underlying plumbing of the financial system is making it unlikely that QT can run its expected 2+ year course. An ideal QT would drain liquidity in the overall financial system while keeping liquidity in the banking sector above a minimum threshold. That is only possible if the bulk of the liquidity drained is sourced from the $2t RRP, which holds funds owned by money market funds. MMFs could facilitate QT by …
Published on October 10, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
The dollar rally may be set to continue as limits on quantitative tightening bind other central banks before it binds the Fed. The tail risks of QT have first appeared in the gilt market, where significant price volatility prompted official intervention. What appears to be a liquidity issue will ultimately become a financial stability issue as investors discover their “safe assets” are not safe. These concerns may prompt a policy response similar to that seen …
Published on September 6, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
A rapid decline in the level of bank reserves would be an obstacle to QT that may prompt action from the authorities. An aggressive QT was premised on first draining the large RRP balances, but the monetary plumbing suggested that was never likely. Banks can easily maintain their own reserve levels, but their own target levels are significantly below those of the Fed. This implies that bank reserve levels will likely fall below the Fed’s …
Published on August 15, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
Treasury buybacks would be a powerful tool that could ease potential disruptions arising from quantitative tightening. The Treasury hinted in their latest refunding minutes of potential buybacks, which is when Treasury issues new debt to repurchase old debt. Buybacks can be used to boost Treasury market liquidity, but more importantly also allow Treasury to rapidly modify its debt profile. By issuing bills to purchase coupons, Treasury could strengthen the market in the face of rising …
Published on May 31, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
The money supply is set to contract just as investors are clamoring for cash to hide from declines in both equities and bonds. A combination of increasing MMF allocation to the RRP and QT may drain ~$1t of bank deposits by the end of the year. The Treasury’s decision to further cut bill issuance will keep money market rates very low and likely push the RRP to over $2.5t by the end of the year. …
Published on April 11, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
The $1.7t in the RRP can help finance the upcoming deluge of coupon Treasuries, but it won’t be easy. Treasury bills will easily be funded, but the bulk of the upcoming supply from net issuance and QT is likely coupons. There are only two ways the RRP can finance coupon Treasuries: 1) funding repo loans to leveraged Treasury investors or 2) funding money fund redemptions to cash Treasury investors. Both mechanisms are subject to frictions …
Published on March 21, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
In the coming months a record amount of coupon Treasuries will flood the market even as demand for those securities appears to be faltering. Recent remarks from Chair Powell suggest quantitative tightening will proceed at a pace of $1t a year, double the annual pace of the prior QT. That could imply a process that quickly ramps up to around $700b in Treasuries and $300b in Agency MBS in annual run-off. At the same time, …
Published on February 7, 2022 by Joseph Wang Free
The Fed’s control over interest rates can also be viewed as control over the quantity of a certain type of money. The mere prospect of rate hikes mechanically reduces the market value of Treasuries, which are widely held as money like safe assets. The declines in value are net losses to the financial system that are also unevenly distributed and cannot be hedged system wide. The losses are further transmitted across asset classes as diversified …