The dollar rally may be set to continue as limits on quantitative tightening bind other central banks before it binds the Fed. The tail risks of QT have first appeared in the gilt market, where significant price volatility prompted official intervention. What appears to be a liquidity issue will ultimately become a financial stability issue as investors discover their “safe assets” are not safe. These concerns may prompt a policy response similar to that seen in Japan, where the price of sovereign debt is explicitly supported. Just as yield curve control led to significant Yen weakness, so a similar move by other central banks would also severely weaken their currencies. This post describes the link between bonds and financial stability, notes the existence of a central bank “put” on bonds, and suggests other central banks would likely cave first.Continue reading
This post answers four frequently asked questions on the Fed’s balance sheet. The answers to the first two questions will affirm that the Fed is executing QT exactly as promised, even if it may not appear that way. The apparent discrepancy is due to TIPS appreciation and details in MBS settlement mechanics. The answers to the second two questions will show how the Fed balance sheet behaves when the Fed has and negative net interest income or capital losses. The Fed has special accounting rules where losses appear as “deferred assets” that will be repaid out of future earnings.Continue reading
The market appears to misunderstand the Fed’s reaction function and is pricing a path of policy that is not consistent with a return to 2% inflation. Inflation moderates through demand destruction when households can no longer afford the price increases. But the sources of household purchasing power – credit, wages, and wealth – all appear to easily support elevated inflation. These metrics may not indicate that a 9% inflation rate is sustainable, but they are much too high for a 2% target inflation rate. The market’s eagerness to price in a dovish Fed pivot early next year is worsening the situation by effectively easing financial conditions before inflation has even peaked. This post reviews the strength of household purchasing power along the three sources and suggests a dovish Fed pivot is far away.Continue reading
There are a few forms of money in the modern financial system, but not all of them are well known. We all know about currency (paper bills) and bank deposits (the numbers in your checking account). If you reading this blog then you also know about central bank reserves (money commercial banks use to pay each other). These are assets that are considered money in large part because they are both risk free and highly liquid. However, they cannot be used as money by institutional investors or the very rich. A big investment fund would not put stacks of $100 bills in the office, nor place huge sums in a bank account (bank deposits are only guaranteed by the government up to $250,000), and is ineligible to hold central bank reserves. When big money looks for safety and liquidity, they look at U.S. Treasuries. In the modern financial system, Treasuries are money.
In this post I will discuss the structural features of the Treasury market that allow it to become money, how the U.S. Treasury became the biggest printer in town, and what this means for economic growth.Continue reading
In recent months M2 has exploded higher by almost 3 trillion, generating enormous market chatter. This note briefly describes the mechanics of how Fed actions has led to a spike in bank deposits, which in turn has led to a large increase in M2. Note that M2 is largely comprised of different types of bank deposits, including demand deposits, savings deposits and time deposits. I’ll first go over the basic principles of central bank and commercial bank money creation, then apply the principles to recent events.