There are increasing signs that the U.S. economy is slowing, but that shift should be characterized as an adjustment to policy changes rather than a move towards recession. Regardless of tariff developments, fiscal spending is declining and population growth is slowing. These two factors have been significant contributors to recent growth, and their moderation necessarily resets the expectation of U.S. growth lower. Incoming data will be weaker than the past to reflect this shift, and […]