Fool Me Once

Published on October 9, 2023 by Premium

The market may finally be overestimating the expected path of policy after two years of persistently underestimating the Fed's willingness to hike. Recent data suggests that economic growth and employment continue to steadily increase even as inflation is clearly trending lower. This suggests a softening labor market is not necessary to lower inflation and raises the bar for additional tightening. At the same time, financial conditions are notably tightening with the steady rise in longer […]

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