personal views of a fed insider

Author: Fed Guy (Page 1 of 3)

The ON RRP Will Never Be A Floor

The Fed would like the ON RRP to play a bigger role in its rate control framework, but the ON RRP has been and will always be a very leaky floor for money market rates. From 2016 to early 2018, Treasury bills and agency discount notes consistently traded several basis points below the ON RRP. Today, even tri-party GC repo is occasionally dipping below the floor. The floor will only get leakier as money floods into the front end: QE continues to pour $120b a month into the banking system, the TGA continues to decline, and banks continue to shed low quality deposits. In this post we review how the ON RRP transmits policy rates, why the global nature of the dollar system means it will always be a leaky floor, and why even a ON RRP rate adjustment may not protect the 0 percent lower bound.

The ON RRP has been a very leaky floor for money markets
Continue reading

Taxes Go Up So Rates Stay Down

Advanced economy governments do not need taxes to fund spending. For over 10 years the U.S. has heavily relied on the Fed to finance its ever increasing public spending, with limited effects on consumer prices or the value of the dollar. The same observation can be made in a number of advanced economies. A fiat system that holds the confidence of the public does not need taxes to fund itself (but things change when that confidence is eventually lost). Yet, the Administration is keen on raising personal and corporate taxes to “fund infrastructure.” Another way to view these efforts is simply as a public policy tool to carry out the Administration’s plan on reducing wealth inequality, a byproduct of accommodative monetary policy. In this post we review the policy trade offs in a lower for longer stance, how income inequality leads to asset price inflation, and how taxing the rich in turn moderates asset price inflation.

Continue reading

Negative Net Yields

Money is being poured into the system, and it has no where to go. The ON RRP is the escape valve, but it is fixed at 0% when money market fund (“MMF”) management fees are around 0.2%. The stars are aligned for continued flow into the money fund space, pushing front end rates towards 0% as it ultimately flows down the ON RRP drain. The Fed will continue to pump $120b/month into the banking system, European bank balance sheets will be less willing to hold additional liquidity under daily average reporting (see this post), and SLR/LCR constraints will eventually bind big U.S. banks (see this post). MMFs have been waiving their fees to keep net yields positive (without waivers Fidelity’s flagship Govie fund would yield -0.09%), but that can’t last forever. Negative net yields are coming. Cash investors are unlikely to idly sit and watch their money evaporate. In this post we outline some options for cash investors, show why the marginal flows will move abroad, and suggest that this is functionally a surgical rate cut.

Fidelity’s $130b Institutional Gov Fund (FRGXX) would be increasingly negative yielding without fee waivers
Continue reading

The End of Bottomless Balance Sheets is Approaching

Basel III is the global standard for bank regulation, but each country implements it in slightly different ways. Previous posts showed how the SLR and LCR create constraints that impact short-term rates, but different methods of implementing those regulations also affect markets. European banks calculate their leverage ratio in a way that has made their balance sheets significantly more elastic between quarter-end dates. This difference was a key driver of quarter-end dynamics in recent years. But that elasticity is going away in the coming months even as forever QE continues to fill bank balance sheet with reserves. In this post we recap the recent TGA deluge, review how European banks calculate their leverage ratio, and show why the impending end to this loophole will force much higher ON RRP participation.

Continue reading

SLR Sets Size, But LCR Shapes Composition

It looks like SLR relief is ending, even as the Fed is set to continue turbo QE. A bank’s balance sheet is like an office building – it can only accommodate so many tenants, and the bank wants the best tenants it can get. The size of the building is set by the leverage ratio, and tenants are judged by metrics that include their commercial value and costs. Right now there are many more potential tenants than vacant offices, so banks maximize returns by forcing the least profitable tenants out. As discussed before, banks will use negative rates to do this. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (“LCR”) is one of the key metrics banks use to assess the costs of their tenants. In this post I sketch out why banks will push some deposits outs, how deposits are judged under the LCR, and where those deposits will end up.

Continue reading

The BRRR Index

Asset prices rise when there is more money in the system, but you have to understand what ‘money’ is. M1/M2 is not a good measure as it is heavily influenced by Fed policy, which changes the composition of money rather than the overall quantity (see here for a walkthrough). The vast majority of money we come in contact with are bank deposits (the numbers in your bank account). Bank deposits are created by commercial banks when they either make loans or purchase assets. For the institutional investor, Treasuries are money – risk free, highly liquid, and fairly stable in value. Big money cannot just deposit billions at a bank and take unsecured credit risk. Treasuries are created when the Federal Government (“FedGov”) spends more than it receives in taxes. In essence, FedGov has a money printer and pays for its spending by printing Treasuries (see here). In this post, I briefly recap the moneyness of Treasuries, introduce a real time measure of FedGov printing, and explore asset price implications of the recent surge in spending.

Continue reading

To SLR Or Not To SLR

There was much commotion last week on whether last April’s emergency SLR relief would be renewed before it’s expiration on March 31st. The “right” policy answer to this question is actually really easy, but politics matter as well. In this post I briefly explain what the SLR is, why a permanent exemption of reserves is the obvious policy answer (Treasuries are less clear), and the potential market impacts if the relief is not renewed.

Continue reading

Negative Bill Yields Are Coming, Here are the Policy Options

It’s likely that bills will trade negative in the coming days as Treasury pays down existing bills, thus reducing their supply by a few hundred billion (see this previous post for more context). In this post I will discuss why large paydowns would push bill yields negative, the mechanics behind how IOR/ON RRP adjustments work and whether they make sense now, and other potential policy options to keep bill yields positive. It does not offer any view on which option, if any, may be taken. This post is meant to educate on a obscure corner of the market.

Is the increase in ONRRP take-up just month-end effects, or the beginning of a deluge?
Continue reading

The Treasury is Dumping $800 Billion Out of the TGA, and it’s NBD

The Treasury stated in its refunding statement that it will reduce the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) to $800 billion by quarter-end, an $800b decline from where it is today. The TGA is the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed (like commercial banks, the Treasury has a Fed account and can hold central bank reserves). When the TGA is run down, that liquidity will enter the financial system as reserve assets for commercial banks (balanced by deposit liabilities to non-banks), and deposit assets for non-banks. This post briefly introduces the TGA, explains the mechanics of the upcoming decline, and discusses how the huge influx of liquidity could affect markets.

Continue reading

The Debt Jubilee is Already Here

Debt jubilee is debt forgiveness, and it’s already happening at a staggering rate for public sector debt. Sovereign debt is fundamentally different from private debt in that the sovereign makes the rules and never has to repay its debt. When the Fed purchases a Treasury, and then continues to roll over that Treasury forever, then that debt is effectively cancelled. That is why public sector debt is not deflationary, nor a drag on growth. This post walks through the mechanics of our modern day debt jubilee, and how it can help deleverage private sector debt.

Continue reading
« Older posts

© 2021 Fed Guy

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑